On Thu, May 10, 2018 Ephraim Suhir presented “Human-in-the-Loop: Predictive Modeling of the Likelihood of a Vehicular Mission”
Improvements in successful and safe operation of an aerospace, maritime, or an automotive vehicle can be achieved through better ergonomics, better work environment, and other efforts of the traditional human psychology and ergonomic science that directly affect human behaviors and performance. There is also a significant potential for further reduction in vehicular accidents and casualties and for assuring the success and safety of a vehicular mission or an extraordinary situation through better understanding the role that various uncertainties play in the planner’s and operator’s worlds of work, when never-perfect human, never completely failure-free navigation equipment and instrumentation, never 100%-predictable response of the object of control (an air- or a space-craft, a boat, or a car), and uncertain and often harsh environments contribute jointly to the likelihood of a never-completely-failure-free mission or a situation. By employing quantifiable and measurable ways of assessing the role and significance of various critical uncertainties and treating a human-in-the-loop as a part (often the most critical part) of a complex man–instrumentation–equipment–vehicle–environment system, one could improve dramatically the state-of-the-art in assuring, on the probabilistic basis, a vehicular mission success and operational safety. The webinar addresses mostly aerospace missions and off-normal situations, but indicates also how the suggested models and methodologies can be applied in automotive and maritime engineering. The general concepts are illustrated by practical examples.